15 Years Later: Orange Pill Nocoiners or HFSP?

January 3, 2009, was the day the world changed, and no one even knew it other than a select few. Believe it or not, the Bitcoin revolution has been raging for the last 15 years. Plenty of battles have been won and lost over the decade and a half.

From the Genesis block to Mt. Gox to the blocksize wars, the FTX debacle, and now we have the Bitcoin ETFs coming onto the scene, Bitcoin is still here and thriving despite all the roadblocks and FUD thrown its way.

Considering Bitcoin had a value of zero when it was released, this is a fantastic feat in itself. As we survey the landscape of the last 15 years, are we any closer to the grandiose mission of getting rid of the shackles of financial enslavement created and maintained by the fiat monetary system? The short answer is no.

If we are to make progress, what is the best way to speed up adoption? Is it to go out and evangelize to the world about the virtues of Bitcoin and how it can change the world, or do we go the other route and tell no coiners, “Have fun staying poor” (HFSP), and worry about stacking our sats and growing our bags. I’ve seen both sentiments on Bitcoin Twitter and nostr.

15 Years In, How’s Adoption Going?

Bitcoin has been around for nearly two decades, so where are we at on adoption? Well, adoption is not very high globally. Some places are better than others, but nothing to write home about overall. The team over at Bitcoin Magazine produced an excellent deep dive into the actual adoption rate of Bitcoin. Here are some of the key bullet points:

• 593,000 true Bitcoin Maximalists who store over 50 percent of their wealth in BTC

• 5.3 million wallets holding over $1000 worth of Bitcoin

• 4.2 million active wallets with a non-zero balance

If the goal is to have the whole world using Bitcoin and transacting in Bitcoin regularly, as would be defined as a “heavy user” in the BM article, we are only .01 percent towards this goal!

After 15 years and countless blogs, YouTube videos, conferences, and the mass dissemination of information over social media, to be at only .01 percent of hyperbitcoinization puts things in glaring perspective. We have a long way to go.

Despite the best efforts of some very smart people in the Bitcoin space, this level of adoption makes you wonder if putting all this effort into orange pilling no coiners is even worth it. Looking at these statistics, it might not be a good use of your time.

As an avid believer in Bitcoin, I can talk about Bitcoin all day, every day, and I love to educate people about Bitcoin, but I’ve backed off doing so lately. I’ve concluded that people will learn about Bitcoin when they are ready to hear the message and not a moment before. I’ve had this experience in my own family and circle of friends.

You Can Lead A Horse To Water

This saying seems to be a recurring theme when talking about Bitcoin to nocoiners. You can have all the knowledge in the world, understand the Bitcoin thesis like the back of your hand, and you are ready to get them set up with a hardware wallet.

If the person you are talking to isn’t ready to truly learn about Bitcoin, you are wasting your time. I know this from experience. I’ve tried to orange pill my wife, my mother, and my brother, all with varying degrees of success.

My wife flat-out thinks it is fake money akin to digital coins you get on a video game… Whomp whomp. Clearly, she isn’t ready for Bitcoin adoption.

I’ve discussed Bitcoin at length with my brother and even given him the book Bitcoin Evangelism by Brian De Mint, a solid Bitcoiner. The book is super easy to read and understand. It breaks down the thesis of Bitcoin really well, yet my brother is still on the fence. Taking a few sips of water but still not entirely on board.

Surprisingly, out of the three, my mother has been the most receptive, which is interesting, considering baby boomers are supposed to be more risk-averse than millennials. She understands self-custody and even has her wallet with some Bitcoin. She has even committed to DCAing to build her stack! She is drinking from the Bitcoin spring!

The takeaway from this experience is that most of the world is too comfortable using the fiat monetary system. It functions well enough most of the time for most of the world that they don’t care enough to question how money is created and why inflation is worsening.

The bottom line is you shouldn’t spend too much time trying to orange pill nocoiners as they will discover Bitcoin at the price they deserve, or they will HFSP. It’s not your responsibility to get everyone on the Bitcoin lifeboat. Save yourself first.