Musings on Loss + Market Thoughts

Crypto is a volatile market, this is evident to crypto natives and normies alike. With that in mind having the 2nd largest exchange explode still manages to find itself in unprecedented territory. What made this worse, in my estimation, is how FTX managed its optics. FTX presented itself as an unstoppable powerhouse, they were buying/bailing out everything. I don't care how jaded you are by the shenanigans in this space, you just didn't expect it.

We all found our way here for one of only a few reasons, and for the vast majority of us the baseline motivation was opportunity. The children and grandchildren of Boomers didn't exactly get the best hand dealt in terms of real estate, sound money, pensions, or job security. So while the pundits, and normies will enjoy getting their licks in while we are down, I remain steadfastly unimpressed with their shortsightedness.

Playing it safe is never a guarantee against loss. There are just too many factors outside of any individual's control to prevent calamity from occasionally striking. Still, suffering a loss of any sort can be devastating. What defines us is how long it takes us to pick ourselves up off the ground after a crushing blow. That does not mean that you won't need some help getting back to your feet, there is no shame in reaching out for some moral support. If you find yourself in a bad spot right now, reach out and talk to someone. I don't care how bad you screwed the pooch, talk it out, it will help you heal. My DMs are always open if you need a sympathetic ear (God knows I have lost enough in my quest to make it)

Market Thoughts

If you had asked me just a few days ago if we had reached the Bitcoin bottom, I would have said yes. Now, I am as uncertain as I can get. It is simply a matter of watching and waiting. A huge entity like FTX blowing up is unprecedented, and the repercussions are unknowable at this stage. Personally I have my eye on 13k as a level of interest. We lose 13k, and I might have to sell a testicle to buy more Bitcoin (25k, and besides who needs 3 anyway...I kid)

In terms of Stacks my plan will remain basically unchanged. I will continue to add to my position, collect NFTs and add exposure to DeFi.

Once the charts start to show some indication of a possible reversal I will start my Bitcoin giga-long, and probably pick up a couple of tokens that have promise.

If you spend much time on crypto twitter you can see the emotional side of what a red candle really means. Things had started to look up a bit, and that is what makes this latest drop an especially nasty kick in the teeth. If you are surviving, that's great, ultimately that is what it takes. The market will recover, and in the meantime there will be some amazing plays to be had.

If you read some of my older post you will notice that I have been easing into my Stacks position, essentially employing a dollar cost average strategy. Primarily I do this via buying levels on the chart that I like, and using Roundly to DCA with my spare change. This has allowed me to buy Stacks for as little as $.22 (STX all time high $3.39). This strategy has worked out well for the long term time frame I had in mind for Stacks when I entered the ecosystem (2-5 years). Going forward the plan remains the same.

Parting Thoughts

I can understand normies taking their shots at crypto natives when something bad happens. Whether they are just risk averse or just the left side of the Bell Curve, the fact is that they will wind up using crypto before its all said and done. For many their first exposure will likely be a CBDC, and before long they will understand Bitcoin by necessity.

Bitcoin Maxi's on the other hand have just proven themselves to be a group of vile idealogues. Obviously not every maxi is a douchebag, but there is a good chance that every douchebag is a maxi. The Maxi's lack of compassion and common decency has been brought to the forefront as they relentlessly mock people who have been robbed.

The fact of the matter is that tokens didn't do this to people, a centralized entity did. If anything can be learned from this debacle it is that decentralized exchanges and DeFi are the answer to this kind of fraud. This truth hurts the maxi's core beliefs, for the ones technically savvy enough to understand, and I am sure some of their vitriol stems from this awareness.

It seems likely that the stooges that comprise the political class in the US will try to use this as a way to regulate crypto. This is a terrible idea for a plethora of reasons, but politicians love to make everything a crisis and then use that as a pretext to remove freedoms. It doesn't help that Bitcoin and crypto are the antithesis to the politics of the day. The US itself is one of the largest Bitcoin holders in the world thanks to civil asset forfeiture and the like. So I don't have high hopes for the "solutions" that this craven group of geriatrics and thieves with varying degrees of brain damage has in mind. That said, ultimately it doesn't matter. The genie is out of the bottle, and ultimately they will lose.

Thanks for reading, as always. That's all I have to say for now. Its been pretty hectic here on the home-front so my writing has been on the back burner out of necessity. I hope to catch up some this weekend, so make sure you give me a follow on Twitter and Sigle. Until next time, Jack.