Market Thoughts

How are you all feeling about Bitcoin right now? I am willing to bet that many of you feel much more bullish today than you did on 5/10 when I wrote the "Bear Market Thoughts" piece. How much has truly changed fundamentally since then? A better question is how much had truly changed fundamentally on 5/10? Remember what I said about the emotional part being the hardest part?

I stuck to my plan

I laid out in a series of articles how I planned on proceeding, what my timeframe is for the trades that I am making, and I have stuck to them. I have managed to buy over half of my Stacks exposure from $.60-$.44. I am ok with this. The plan continues to be to buy at levels that I like until I get to the amount of Stacks that I want. My overall plan is still intact, my timeline may be shifting a bit. The 2-5 year plan may actually be more like 2-3 years, I am not certain, just checking my bias.

How you can be right and still be wrong

So this morning I saw a set up on Bitcoin that I have a very high degree of success trading. It was a bit difficult for me to pass up the trade honestly. I didn't take it though, and that is because trading bitcoin on leverage is not part of my plan right now (especially when you consider that when I buy Stacks I am essentially leveraging bitcoin anyway). I didn't take it because for me any deviation in my plan can cause me to take moves that I haven't thought about carefully enough. So while I have been right about the state of the bear market, literally caught the bottom of Stacks, if I am not careful now I can make a series of wrong moves that causes me to be wrong.....even though I am right....Savvy? Anon, you have to have a plan - based on conviction (not just TA)- and you have to stick to it if you want to be successful. I have made this mistake too many times. A plan that includes timeframes and reasonable exposure are essential to keeping the emotional part of this game in check.

Example

Lets say when I saw that Bitcoin chart earlier I had decided to take the rest of the fiat that I have set aside to make Stacks buys with and longed Bitcoin at 10x leverage (do not recommend, this is high leverage. The best traders I personally know don't use more than 3x). I didn't set a stop loss because I feel good about 29k as solid support. This is a swing trade anyway, so I am not going to stare at my laptop all night. I'm off, wife is off, we are going to hang out. I see an alert on my phone, only to find a scam wick on the chart that liquidated my position. That is an absolute shit feeling, I know because I am the king of this move lol. At that point I would probably be tempted to liquidate some of my Bitcoin NFT positions, and make another high leverage trade to try to make myself whole again. The nature of the market hasn't changed, I just didn't stick to my plan. Now I am down bad, feeling bad, and thinking bad. NGMI. This is how you can be wrong, and right at the same time.

Challenging my bias

I feel more bullish than I have for a long time now. That said I don't think we see a straight shot to all time highs. I am more inclined to believe that we take 34k and see some sideways, and then 36k and see some sideways. Those are the levels I am looking at right now. If we dip I have dry powder to buy more Stacks below entry. Obviously this is not trading advice, if I was better I would have bought much more Stacks at $.44 lol. You have to know your own plan, and then have the discipline to follow it. That said, I do not think that sub 20k bitcoin is anywhere in the charts anytime soon. So that means there will be many opportunities for me to layer my buys according to my timeframe.

Bullish on Stacks

If you aren't in the Stacks community, you should be. So much open communication from a lot of brilliant people regarding the future of this ecosystem. My personal belief is when enough ETH traders learn about what Stacks is we are going to see a rapid increase in market cap. Just since I have started trading Stacks (April 30) Stacks has risen in market cap rank. I am willing to bet this is due to other projects losing value, yet Stacks is managing to do quite well relative to BTC in this Bear environment. Part of this is due to the stacking mechanism that incentivizes holding, without gimmick or crazy APRs. I am seeing new artist debuting on Gamma, and I know once ETH finds that marketplace......man....lol. Lets just say my body is ready.

I will continue to buy more Bitcoin NFTs, as I said before I believe that NFTs are in their own market cycle and for Bitcoin NFTs we are in an accumulation range. I will continue to stack SXT in Xverse (https://www.xverse.app/) so I can get my 10% bitcoin return, and I will continue to search for the builders who want to help change the world for the betterment of us all. That is all I have to say for now. Until next time, Jack.

The NFT featured is #24 from the Mars Woman Collection