Market Thoughts 10/29/22

Despite learning about the cyclical nature of our world by means of education and observation, the thing that truly drove the point into that space of deep understanding within my mind has been trading the crypto markets. Everyone gets excited during the bull market, many stop paying attention during the bear market. Right now we are in the part of the cycle where many aren't paying attention.

Within the remaining group of people paying attention to the crypto market the hype generated by the recent DOGE pump has generated the most excitement I have witnessed in months. Much more so than the ETH merge. The reason is that historically when DOGE pumps it ushers in the most favored cycle of crypto degens: ALT Season.

Now while there are some meme coins also pumping at this time, it is hard for me to declare an end of the bear. For one, the DOGE pump is being driven by the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk. The state of the world at the moment also doesn't scream bullish, especially in the traditional markets.

That said, there are plenty of things for a crypto aficionado to be pumped about (pun intended). Bitcoin looks primed for a breakout (as does ETH - which actually looks a bit stronger than BTC here). Every day people are waking up to the reality of the failure of the fiat money system, and Bitcoin has more credibility with the mainstream public than it ever has. More countries are demonstrating an interest in Bitcoin adoption, and it can be reasonably expected that this trend will increase.

Going back to the DOGE pump when degens make money on a move like that, they reinvest those profits into other crypto projects. This is why you see some meme coins mooning right now. Low liquidity projects pump easy and generate fomo. This can be repeated over different projects and ecosystems, and eventually lead to an actual ALT Season. If this sustains you could see currently sidelined people re-enter the market to try and get their piece of the action.

That brings us to NFTs. Recently Reddit made waves with their "digital collectibles", and just brought NFTs back into the limelight for the first time in a long time (remember all of those NFTs are dead articles? I bet you wont be seeing many of those in the coming months). NFTs are going to have another bull market, the only question is when.

What is most exciting is the possibility that Twitter is going to be a bullish catalyst for crypto. As it turns out crypto twitter has been the lifeblood of that app for a long time. With a crypto native at the helm it is reasonable to expect that crypto will play a more prominent role within that app, possibly even overshadowing what Reddit is experiencing right now. This is bigger than a couple of social media platforms, ultimately this is the beginning steps of the transition to Web3.

As for me my plan remains the same. I am putting all of my energy into Stacks. This is a young ecosystem full of promise and talent. The work being done on the main chain and within the various projects within the ecosystem makes it obvious to me that the opportunity for growth is too massive to sleep on. If you haven't read this, I recommend you give it a look. Offers some great perspective.

For my part I am still investing primarily in Stacks NFTs. Gamma is always open in my browser, and you can pick up some interesting data just by paying attention. For several weeks the top collection sold were the BNS names. This last week or so the volume has died off tremendously. Bearish? Not at all. The BNS mania ensued as some ETH whales filled their bags, and when the time comes they will shill them (what do you think will happen then?). My floor prices have been rising, and it isn't hard to notice new names making buys in the marketplace. I don't know when the next NFT bull will occur, but I endeavor to be ready for it.

Stacks Parrots just released a media player, Crash Punks just previewed their animated series in the metaverse, Sigle keeps pushing updates, etc. Meanwhile music studios, film studios, and every other sort of business is trying their hardest to figure out how to stay relevant as we undergo this technological/cultural revolution.

While it seems like this bear market is taking forever, it is only because we are hyper-focused on it. The rest of the world is either relatively unaware, or trying to figure out how to stake their claim to what is being built. So yeah, I guess you could say I'm bullish.

As always, thanks for reading. A like, follow, and retweet go far, and don't forget to follow me on Sigle on your way out. Followers will get an exclusive newsletter at least monthly as soon as that update is released.

*The easiest way to DCA your Stacks here