Climate Muscle Memory Gym - Jan 2020

Temperatures: Goddard's Jan surface readings show almost no retreat from Dec's spike in anomalies, down 0.01c to 1.49c. The land & ocean record shows a rise of 0.07c to 1.18c. Spencer's record of lower troposphere temperatures was unchanged from Dec's near-peak.

Observation: All three records show temperatures rising sharply during 4Q19, enough that all were threatening a breakout from the stable plateaus which succeeded 2016's freak spike. January's results show no pullback from that, implying we could be embarking on another leg up.

Greenhouse Gas Concentrations: Mauna Loa Results

CO2 concentrations rose 0.4% mom to 413.4ppm in Jan, a deflection 0.7SDs above trend. However, this looks like noise only - on a 12m basis, the rise in concentrations is almost exactly on trend. In yoy terms, concentrations were up 0.6% yoy and up 0.7% 12ma. Jan's 2020 concentrations are 30.4% higher than the average recorded in 1960.

Methane: concentrations rose 0.3% mom to 1876.2 ppb in October, up 0.6% yoy and up 0.5% 12ma. The acceleration seen since early 2018 continues, and is now at its highest (excluding spikes in 2015,1999, and 1992) since the early 1990s. This is a distinct deterioration.

Nitrous Oxide: concentrations were unchanged in Oct at 332.1ppb, and have been essentially unchanged since the beginning of 2019. The yoy rise is only 0.2% yoy and 0.3% 12ma. Moreover, the long-term trend is for sustained slowdown, and current concentrations are underperforming even that (ie, good news).

Sulphur Hexaflouride: It's a trace gas at only 10.03pptr, but it's also horribly potent as a greenhouse gas, so it matters. Still, the news is good: the long-term growth trend is indisuptably negative, and Oct's concentrations underperformed that by 2SDs (ie, good news). In yoy terms, concentrations are up 3.3% yoy and 3.6% on a 12ma, which is the slowest so far this century.