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This Is Not Your Father’s Economy

November 19, 2023

Advertisement slogans are often catchy and hard to forget. However, only a few reach iconic status – including one that failed miserably when it first came out. After getting annihilated by the big three Japanese automakers (Honda, Nissan, and Toyota) in the 1980s, by 1988, General Motors (GM) real...

The Best Ways to Play a Bitcoin Spot ETF

November 16, 2023

Fake ETFs seem to be all the rage in crypto these days. Last month, we got a false news report that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF got approved, which saw BTC spike 10% higher. And now this week, another ETF with BlackRock’s name on it, this one for Ripple (XRP), turned out to be fake as wel...

The Uncomfortable Truth About Crypto

November 13, 2023

Note From the Editor: This is Part 4 of an essay series that debuted earlier last month. Here are links to Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3. “Fundamentals have no value in crypto.” Nothing makes my blood boil like when people say that. Mostly because it might actually be true. Back when the altcoin m...

The Fed’s Regime Change Is Already Happening

November 09, 2023

Welcome to the new version of Filtered. For those of you who don’t know, Espresso isn’t the only place where our rotating crew of writers (including yours truly) share their insights. They also get the chance to dive even deeper on their favorite topics (and offer some trade ideas) on our podcast ...

SOL Is Having a Great Year, But Solana Is Still Struggling

November 07, 2023

Solana (SOL) has exploded upwards in the past few weeks, leaving many investors with a serious case of FOMO. Heck, even Arthur Hayes and Raoul Pal are getting a bag. If that does not mark a local top, I don’t know what will (judging from recent price action, it did mark a local top). In any case, ...

Here’s How We Called Bitcoin’s Upswing This Month

November 02, 2023

Welcome to the new version of Filtered. For those of you who don’t know, Espresso isn’t the only place where our rotating crew of writers (including yours truly) share their insights. They also get the chance to dive even deeper on their favorite topics (and offer some trade ideas) on our podcast ...

The Moment ETH Changed Forever

October 31, 2023

Note From the Editor: This is Part 3 of an essay series that debuted earlier this month. Here are links to Part 1 and Part 2. The average lifespan of a new business is 5 years. In crypto, that same figure is 15 months. It’s a simple fact that screams how hard it is to inject a token into your bu...

Despite the Fed Pause, the Market’s Barometer Is Signaling Danger

October 22, 2023

With a heavy heart, let’s first start off by sending positive vibes and hoping that the kinetic wars that we are currently witnessing can end soon. Regardless of political opinions and other reasons, innocent civilians, young and old, are suffering and dying. Here’s to wishing that these conflic...

A Monetary History of the United States and Crypto, 2020-2023

October 18, 2023

Note From the Editor: This is part 2 of an essay that debuted on Tuesday. We suggest you read part 1 here before reading today’s essay, if you haven’t already. On Tuesday, we started to lay out a framework for a new “Quality Theory of Tokens.” First, we had to explain how usage, not just supply, a...

A Monetary History of the United States and Crypto, 2020-2023

October 16, 2023

Note From the Editor: Since 2019, we’ve used Espresso to bring you market updates, onchain data analysis, and market commentary. This began as a desire for Benjamin and myself (Ben Lilly) to have a more constructive and nuanced conversation with other market analysts. We found the approach to be ...

The Two Sides Fighting Over Blockchain's Future

October 08, 2023

The year is 1992 and Andrew Tanenbaum, a computer scientist, has declared that Linux is dead. If you’re not familiar with Linux, it’s an operating system (OS) popular among more hardcore computer users. The reason Tanenbaum pronounced Linux dead is because of the kernel it uses. A kernel is lik...

Bitcoin’s Last Hope for 2023

October 02, 2023

Down three runs, bottom of the 9th, with bases loaded and a full count. As the pitcher begins his windup, the batter’s eyes widen. He’s studied the pitcher’s release and knows exactly what’s coming next. The fat pitch he’s been waiting for, a juicy fastball straight down the middle that he can ...

How to Navigate a World of Higher Rates

September 28, 2023

In finance, it’s very easy to get caught up in the smaller details and miss the forest for the trees when it comes to diagnosing the health of the economy. But I would argue the opposite is equally dangerous. Last week, JPow and the Federal Reserve decided to leave rates unchanged at a target ra...

Japan Prepares to Toss the Curve

September 24, 2023

One of the most frustrating feelings is the feeling of being disenfranchised. The sense of futility of one’s effort, and the inability to take control to change an outcome, can be infuriating and defeating. Perhaps this is why so many people are feeling anxious about the future of the world in ...

What These Projects Can Learn From Ethereum

September 21, 2023

Crypto’s taken some hard hits over the past year. But if you look beyond price and dig deeper into fundamentals, one project’s looking better than ever. Twelve months after the Merge, Ethereum (ETH) is living up to its promise. According to ultrasound.money, since Ethereum officially switched to...

Changing Our Approach

September 19, 2023

I’ve decided it’s time to write about crypto more. An epiphany. Similar in scope to making coffee at home instead of going to the local coffeehouse. Not only do I save nearly $5 each day (I drink two or three cups of coffee a day, and this is nearly two decades ago – inflation, am I right?), but...

How Arbitrum Can Turn Its Token Around

September 18, 2023

Single Origin: ARB Needs to Take Some Cues From ETH Back in March, I said the following: The last nail in Arbitrum’s deathbed will be driven in on March 23. Will ARB be laying in it by the end of the year? Arbitrum, if you’re unaware, is a layer-2 protocol designed to help scale Ethereum. And th...

Get Ready for the Reset

September 14, 2023

If you’re like me, you’re probably dying of thirst for some Hopium-Ade right now. Bitcoin and Ethereum showed some life yesterday, which probably can be partially attributed to Deutsche Bank announcing it will offer custody of certain cryptos. But they have still stubbornly stayed range-bound. M...

Maker’s Future Belongs on Cosmos, Not Solana

September 10, 2023

You know the bear is bad when even Vitalik seems to have given up and started selling. The Ethereum (ETH) cofounder sold about $580,000 of his holdings last week. But there’s more to the story. For one thing, he didn’t sell ETH, mind you, but MKR, the governance token of MakerDAO. The reason? ...

We Have Reached Maximum Boredom

September 07, 2023

Bobbing up and down in the water, you’re about to fall asleep on your surfboard...when all of a sudden… You feel a small force begin to lift you up. The sound of churning water grows louder. Your body is being rushed toward the shore. Finally. A wave is here. You spring into action, crouching...

The Bitcoin Milkshake Is Back on the Menu

September 05, 2023

Why Bitcoin’s Pumps Are So Parabolic As the voices drift closer, you hear the door open. You close your eyes, grip the armrest of your couch a little tighter, and take a deep breath. Every parent dreads this moment. Your three kids just got home from school, and you have to give them the news. I...

The Debt Dollar Melt-Up

September 02, 2023

You’ve probably never heard of George Warren before. He was an agricultural economist who had a couple notable accomplishments in his life: He wrote a book on dairy farming, devised a way to get chickens to lay more eggs, and later, altered the entire course of monetary history. You see, Warren ...

Gensler Takes Another “L”

August 31, 2023

Crypto this summer has been unusually quiet. But this week, you didn’t have to strain to hear the rejoicing that rose up across the market. On Tuesday, a court overruled the SEC’s decision to block asset manager Grayscale from converting its Bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). The bat...

The Next Crisis Is Already Solved

August 29, 2023

The Blend: The Biggest Takeaways From Jackson Hole MMT’ers have an uphill battle. That’s my takeaway from my meander through the dozen or so articles, handouts, and even some essays in relevant publications that came out of the big event last week. The event is the Jackson Hole Symposium, a meeti...

The Solution to Cosmos’ Woes Is Hiding In Plain Sight

August 27, 2023

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. So, THORchain (RUNE) is a lending protocol that allows users to swap assets across blockchain networks. And it just launched a new lending primitive. Here’s how it’s described by THORChain: Opening new loans creates a deflationary effect on the $RUNE ass...

From Bad to Worse to…?

August 24, 2023

After what seemed like a never-ending period of ultra-low volatility, crypto finally broke out. Or broke down, to be more accurate. Last week’s selloff saw Bitcoin (BTC) lose 12% of its market cap overnight. The crypto market overall sank by almost 8%. And the crash triggered liquidations of more ...

Waiting For The Biggest Bears

August 22, 2023

The Blend: Market Update The ground is shaking. The last thing you likely want to hear is what’s going on someplace else miles away… As you feel the unsteadiness beginning to intensify beneath your feet. So instead of hitting on what I originally had in store - discussion on what the IMF has been...

The Economy’s Healthy Appearance Is Only Skin-Deep

August 20, 2023

If the U.S. economy were a person, do you think it’d pass a complete physical checkup right now? The average investor might say yes. After all, the U.S. equity market has been in melt-up mode in 2023, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 looking to break all-time highs. Another bright spot is the job mark...

A Cure for Token Tunnel Vision

August 17, 2023

“Are you trying to get me to throw this mic across the room in disgust?” Yup, I just quoted myself. One of our conversations on the latest Alpha Bites episode provoked an unusually strong response from me. And no, somebody wasn’t telling me how Folgers was a good cup of coffee. Instead, the xCh...

Tempering Expectations

August 14, 2023

The Blend: Looking Back on Arkham’s Drop; The Stock-to-Flow Model’s Strength Isn’t Predicting Price; FedNow Embracing Web3? When I’m really bored, I run. Doesn’t matter the time, the day, how hot or cold it is… I just step outside and go. Half the time I don’t care what I’m wearing either. And t...

Bitcoin Is About to Go From Boring to “Boing”

August 13, 2023

If you feel like something’s been off in crypto recently, you’re not crazy. Over the past few months, several earth-shattering events have hit this space, some good (the first Ripple ruling, the BlackRock ETF) and some bad (the SEC lawsuits, the Curve crisis). Yet, Bitcoin (BTC) has barely budge...

We Shouldn’t Be Afraid of Less Volatility

August 10, 2023

If you looked at the big headlines this week, you might be fooled into thinking the bull market is finally here. PayPal announced it’s launching a dollar-pegged stablecoin. Coinbase’s own blockchain, Base, finally went live. Hopium is growing that the SEC will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. And even ...

This Token's Down 97%. And It's Looking Strong

August 08, 2023

The Blend: The Fed Crashes PayPal's Party; Measuring How Much This Market Sucks There is a line I keep repeating… Hard work pays off. My philosophy is pretty simple. You work hard, be consistent, and you’ll win. And once the wins are realized, you reinforce the mantra with, “That’s why we work ha...

What Crypto Can Learn From the Corn Economy

August 06, 2023

Single Origin: Token Economies Need a New Monetary Policy We all view them differently. Talk to somebody climbing the corporate ladder, you’ll hear they trade like stock. To a media person, they’re a way to reward your most loyal followers. To an arcade owner, they’re just game credits. But in ...

The Curve Crisis Could’ve Been Avoided

August 02, 2023

Filtered: July 31 – August 4 It’s easy to forget that DeFi is still young, and it has some hard lessons to learn as it continues to grow and mature. But some lessons are more expensive than others. And this week’s came with a big price tag. For those who’ve been living under a rock, Curve, the se...

How Blockchain Dethrones the Dollar

August 01, 2023

The Blend: Digital Money Threatens the Dollar’s Reserve Status My long-term view was firm. The U.S. dollar would not lose the title of global reserve currency. This was even after JPow manned the infinity printer, Ray Dalio rolled out his educational series called “Principles for Dealing With the ...

The Dollar Is Hurting. Can Devs Do Something?

July 20, 2023

Filtered: July 17 – 21 Welcome to a new weekly issue we call, Filtered. If you’ve been following Espresso regularly, you’ve likely noticed that we’re starting to ramp up our content on other platforms. So we thought we’d help our readers out by giving you some of the highlights. You can conside...

The Fed’s New Tactic to Stop Inflation: The Digital Dollar

July 17, 2023

How FedNow Helps Fight Inflation Enter FedNow, stage right. If you follow Espresso, you know I started talking about FedNow many months ago. For newer readers, FedNow is a new, 24/7/365 instant payment system. And it launches tomorrow. Already, the system has 57 “early adopters” who will suppo...

Powell’s Game Is Just Getting Started

July 13, 2023

Welcome to a new weekly issue we call, Filtered. If you’ve been following Espresso regularly, you’ve likely noticed that we’re starting to ramp up our content on other platforms. So we thought we’d help our readers out by giving you some of the highlights. You can consider this your weekly round...

Arweave’s Crucial Mistake – And How Ethereum Avoided It

July 11, 2023

Be warned: This issue of The Blend is rather heavy on the reality check. I apologize in advance for the lack of vibes that will emanate from the lines that follow. But sometimes we just need to hear it straight. That way, we aren’t relying on hopium to get us through the next year. And instead, ...

Bitcoin’s Next Target: A LUNA Leftover

July 09, 2023

$2.5 billion gone in 72 hours. In early May 2022, the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG), one of the organizations behind the Terra ecosystem, was in crisis. Its stablecoin, UST, had lost its $1 peg. In an attempt to rescue the peg, the LFG puked up 80,394 BTC over a three-day span, costing it billions. ...

Are You Prepared for the Bull?

July 06, 2023

Welcome to a new weekly issue we call, Filtered. If you’ve been following Espresso regularly, you’ve likely noticed that we’re starting to ramp up our content on other platforms. So we thought we’d help our readers out by giving you some of the highlights. You can consider this your weekly round...

The Wooly Bully Vibe

July 02, 2023

Welcome to what we call Single Origin. It’s a monthly write-up from each analyst that focuses on one topic. These are more long-form theses that each analyst will spend time unpacking. We’ll publish these each Monday moving forward. So each week, you can expect a Single Origin, a Blend, and a Filt...

Whale-Watching Season Is Here…Is Alt Season Next?

June 29, 2023

Welcome to our new weekly issue we call, Filtered. If you’ve been following Espresso regularly, you’ve likely noticed that we’re starting to ramp up our content on other platforms. So we thought we’d help our readers out by giving you some of the highlights. You can consider this your weekly rou...

Blockchain Games Are About to Catch Up to the 21st Century

June 27, 2023

Hear that? That silence you’re hearing is actually the sound of boredom. I know the markets are still rather dull. And the market frenzy is not here, nor are the 2x gains in an afternoon. But big things are happening. Gary “Shades” Gensler is looking more and more like a fool by the day. Wall ...

Reports of Cardano’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

June 25, 2023

Let’s start with a pop quiz. Below are the returns for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Cardano (ADA) during the last bull market, from the COVID-19 March 2020 bottom to their respective tops in the 2021 bull market. Can you guess which is which? 17,469% 5,560% 1,724% It might surprise you to...

We're Back... Right?

June 22, 2023

Welcome to a new weekly issue we call, Filtered. If you’ve been following Espresso regularly, you’ve likely noticed that we’re starting to ramp up our content on other platforms. So we thought we’d help our readers out by giving you some of the highlights. You can consider this your weekly round...

The Hopium Seeds Are Starting to Sprout

June 20, 2023

It’s in the air. Mild notes of bullish hopium, floating among the remnants of what can be best described as a now forgotten place. That forgotten place being crypto. It was once all the rage. The promised land. A new world. And so much more. But today, you are no longer able to eavesdrop on co...

Bitcoin’s Perfect Storm

June 15, 2023

What began as just a few raindrops of minor trouble offshore now feels like a massive tsunami heading straight for us. As we’ve learned all too well over the past year, when it rains in crypto, it doesn’t just pour – it turns into a full-on Category 5 hurricane. Our latest storm began when the SEC...

Who Is The Mysterious Entity Impacting ETH Price?

June 12, 2023

Three months ago, a historic shift began. It’s similar to major oceanic undercurrents. These currents act like conveyor belts. They take warmer waters from the equator and push them to the poles. And then they bring cold water from the poles and drop them near the equator. For anybody who has fi...

The Problem With Ethereum Yields

June 08, 2023

We’re getting close to the halfway point of 2023. Yes, time flies. But what I find amazing here is SBF, Celsius, BlockFi, Voyager… they each are still occupying headlines and headspace in the market. We saw this after the big news dropped earlier this week that the SEC is suing Binance and Coinba...

Dazed and Confused

June 07, 2023

Catecholamines make you feel powerful and ready to fight. They are hormones your body produces when the fight-or-flight response gets triggered. These are incredibly powerful biological responses to stress. They can even give some humans superpowers like super strength. Like Danous Estenor from F...

Shanghai Is Creating a Whole New Market on Ethereum

June 01, 2023

There are three topics I cannot stop talking about these days. They are Ethereum yield curves; Bitcoin ordinals; and what the puppet masters at the World Bank, IMF, and BIS are saying when it comes to crypto. These three things are literally my happy place. And in today’s Blend, I hit on each ...

Is the Bottom About to Fall Out of the Market?

May 30, 2023

Corn dogs. Caramel apples. Lemonade. Funnel Cakes. Cotton candy. Who can resist the sights, sounds, and smells of a carnival or county fair? Back when I was a kid, there was an annual, small-scale carnival hosted by the local Catholic church that took place right around the start of the school y...

Ethereum Is No Silicon Valley Bank

May 23, 2023

Let’s go back to the beginning of April. Anticipation for the upcoming Ethereum (ETH) upgrade, Shanghai (or Shapella), was on the rise. Soon, ETH stakers would finally be able to withdraw their staked tokens after years of waiting. But not everyone was optimistic at the time. Plenty of people were...

The Fed’s Rate Hike Regime Is Getting Out of Control

May 17, 2023

No other sport in the world has a greater variety of traditions than college football in the United States. There are 129 Division I college football teams in the FBS (the highest tier of college football), and each school has its own mascot and football tradition, either on or off the field. Fro...

Get Ready For The Snap Back

May 11, 2023

The weekend is near. And markets are full of fear. With that in mind, let’s just get right to it today. Just Out of Reach The main metric we are watching is still cumulative volume delta (CVD) of spot Bitcoin (BTC). (For an explanation of CVD, check out the last market update here.) In our las...

Bitcoin Has an Unlikely Ally in Its Fight Against the Dollar

May 10, 2023

Two men enter, one man leaves. This is the one and only rule of Thunderdome. Which is of course a reference to the gladiator arena from George Miller's 1985 classic Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome starring Mel Gibson. In case you’re not a movie geek like me and haven’t seen it, Mad Max’s Thunderdome ...

The Calm Before the Storm

May 08, 2023

Yin and yang. Light and dark. Peace and chaos. Harnessing the energy of two opposing forces can result in max gain with minimal effort, no matter your domain. In the world of crypto, one of these forces is calmness, which is unfolding right now. Which means to take advantage, we should look to it...

Is Arbitrum the Beginning of the End for Airdrops?

May 06, 2023

As dawn’s first light creeps over the horizon, the farmer awakes, ready to face another day of labor. He slowly gets out of bed and puts on his work uniform: a timeworn “APE SZN” hoodie and a disheveled T-shirt. Instead of boots, he wears a single flip-flop. He goes over to his computer and fires ...

The Next Phase Of The Macro Cycle

May 04, 2023

Last week, the FED released some notes on Silicon Valley Bank’s failure. The document listed four main reasons why the bank collapsed. I’ll spare you the trouble of running through the document by saying none of these four reasons had anything to do with duration risk. To be more specific, nothing...

King Dollar Isn’t Getting Dethroned Anytime Soon

May 03, 2023

De-dollarization. The new flavor of the month for the financial pundits and talking heads. The debt ceiling and the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) are so yesterday. The United Kingdom just posted a red-hot inflation reading of 10.1% that barely moved any needles. And yet, the attention...

Will JPow Sweep the Leg?

May 02, 2023

Yesterday, Bitcoin led the way on, “Sell in May and go away.” Bitcoin (BTC) down 4%, Ethereum (ETH) dropping 2%, and the rest of the total crypto market cap down as well, on the first day of the month. Pair this up with the turmoil at First Republic… And the realization that deep concerns in the...

The End of Bitcoin’s Bull Market?

April 29, 2023

Late December 2022. Christmas was just around the corner, but given what was happening in crypto markets at that time, not many of us were feeling cheery. SBF, Sam Trabucco, Caroline Ellison, and the rest of the FTX polycule dominated headlines while Bitcoin (BTC) traded in the low $16,000s. Th...

Bitcoin Might Be Cooling Off Now, But Not For Long

April 27, 2023

40…45…50… My eyes are fixed on the red needle as it slowly creeps up and up. 55… 60… I put a little more weight on my right foot… 65… All of a sudden, the inside of my car resembles the scene of an earthquake. My dashboard is rattling violently, sending my sunglasses tumbling into the passeng...

Now’s the Time to Look Before You Leap

April 25, 2023

I checked my gear one last time, looked up at my target, and prepared to leap off the wall. Rock climbing often isn’t a straight shot up the side of your formation. To ascend, you have to go for riskier handholds once in a while. And that’s the situation I found myself in. My next handhold was n...

Gensler Suing Chuck E. Cheese

April 24, 2023

If there’s a story you’d like us to cover in the Blend, leave a message in the comments or email us at [email protected] The confusion is on full display. Gary Gensler’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee became a focal point for the blockchain industry last week. The vide...

When to Expect the Final Shakeout

April 19, 2023

Ben Lilly here. If you’re a regular reader, you know here at Espresso we strive to offer you a variety of insights, no matter what part of the crypto community you call home. Whether it’s musings on Web3 or a token design breakdown, part of our goal is to provide you more than just one flavor of c...

One of the Great Recession’s Biggest Culprits Is Back

April 18, 2023

The more things change, the more they stay the same. The financial world is still trying to catch its breath following the last few weeks. After Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) rapid collapse shook people’s faith in the stability of other banks, a crisis swept through the industry as depositors starte...

The Non-Narrative Plays

April 15, 2023

The latter half of 2023 will be marked with whatever narrative is fitting of the time. This happened in 2020 and 2021 when the COVID money printer had gone full bore earlier that year. Its aftereffects were finally being felt in terms of inflation. The result, every single trader, investor, and la...

Powell’s Trouble With the Curve

April 12, 2023

Top of the ninth inning. Two outs. Bases are empty. The pitcher stares down home plate. He’s sweaty and nervous. He steps off the mound and mutters to himself, trying to talk some confidence into his psyche. He has a 2-0 lead. But he needs one more out to get a shut-out. Pitching a complete gam...

Shanghai Shakeout

April 11, 2023

Thirty-three-and-a-half billion dollars is about to come into the crypto market. I’m not talking about some new fund from some venture capital firm. Nor am I talking about another country following El Salvador’s lead and making Bitcoin legal tender. No, that amount actually represents the total v...

The April 9 Blend

April 08, 2023

How a single satoshi can be worth six figures The current DEX trend is not a price catalyst The global central bank network to host all CBDCs Here at Espresso, we don’t have inflated opinions of our place in the crypto media ecosystem. We know you probably visit other sources that dive into crypt...

Waiting for the Powell Pivot? Watch This Indicator

April 05, 2023

The Houston Astros were a formidable team in the National League back in the 1990s and 2000s. Prior to their current success (the Dusty Baker squad, not the sign-stealing squad under Hinch), the Astros had a title-contending roster for quite a long stretch. From 1997 to 2005, the Astros reached th...

Web2 Refugees

April 01, 2023

The regulatory barking toward crypto is getting louder. That’s all well and fine… Actually, it’s annoying. But it won’t last forever. Government officials are preparing to release FedNow, the digital dollar system, into the market. It’s v1 of their CBDC. It’s a subject we discussed in the last p...

The Bluff That Broke the Dollar

March 29, 2023

Black swans. Six sigma events. The tail risks you never knew existed. Unforeseen disasters that sneak up and hit your blindside harder than Bill Romanowski in his prime on an otherwise idle Tuesday. If you’re like me and grew up in 21st-century America, you know the sort of trauma I’m describing...

The Day I Almost Got Rekt

March 25, 2023

Let's do things a little differently this time around. Today, I’m going to tell you about my USDC depeg horror story. On a recent Saturday morning, a sleepy Kodi woke up to the warm embrace of the morning sun, as the first rays of sun peeked through the open window and birds chirped cheerfully out...

The New Financial System

March 23, 2023

In July of this year, a peer-to-peer payment system will capture hundreds of millions of users virtually overnight. It’s what the crypto industry has been working towards since Bitcoin launched 14 years ago. It’s impressive to think about. Millions and millions of users moving money every single d...

Powell’s Soft Landing Can’t Avoid the Turbulence Ahead

March 20, 2023

“OK, which runway would you like at Teterboro [Airport]?” “We can’t do it. We’re gonna be in the Hudson.” On the afternoon of January 15, 2009, Manhattanites were treated to a frightening spectacle. US Airways 1549, a flight scheduled for Charlotte, North Carolina, had struck a flock of geese ri...

Arbitrum Exodus

March 20, 2023

The last nail in Arbitrum’s death bed will be driven in on March 23. Will ARB be laying in it by the end of the year? That was the question at The Lab when Arbitrum announced its token drop. We then took a look into the economic design of the ARB token, and thought it might be an opportunity to di...

Prepare for an Eruption of Bitcoin Volatility

March 16, 2023

Hey guys, JJ here. I wish that I had something clever to say to get your mind prepped for this week’s breakdown, but the honest truth is my brain is fried from actively trading and following this chaos closely over the past week. I’m guessing you’re all as equally exhausted as I am, so without fu...

Sowing The Seeds of a Revolution

March 11, 2023

Our attention is fully in the present. A state of supreme focus and awareness. We are in the zone as our feet press against the starting blocks. A false start can leave you on the sidelines. The crouched bodies of traders prepare for Jerome Powell to fire his starting gun. And as we wait on this...

Greed Is Good (Sometimes)

March 06, 2023

A sharply dressed man with slicked-back hair stands in a room full of people. Microphone in hand, a thousand eyes parked on him, his presence is calm and commanding. The camera closes on him as he begins his speech. "The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good...

Who's Bluffing, Crypto or the Dollar?

March 01, 2023

A steely-eyed Russian card shark glances down the table at his baby-faced opponent. “Last card coming,” he taunts, as he flips over an ace. Immediately, the young man’s facial expression shifts to a look of distress. That reaction says it all. There’s blood in the water, and the Russian goes in...

The Twin Brothers Behind Inflation

February 27, 2023

See if you recognize any of these names… Hunter Johansson. Michael Kutcher. Sami Malek. Any of them ring a bell? Probably not. But you’ve likely heard of their twins. Hunter is the twin brother of Oscar-nominated actress Scarlett. Michael and Sami are the twin brothers of actors Ashton Kutcher an...

Crypto Manifest Destiny

February 22, 2023

Crypto Twitter, except in real life. Can you imagine that? All of your favorite cartoon characters from our weird corner of the internet gathered in the same physical place every day. Pepes, wassies, wolves, smols, spartans, cats, robots, and even janitors enjoying markets together in a shared ...

ESG: Extreme Shortage Guaranteed?

February 20, 2023

Sri Lanka is often referred to as “The Pearl of the Indian Ocean.” The country is adorned with an array of magnificent wonders – culture, history, people, geology, flora, and fauna. I couldn't agree more with its nickname. Back in 2017 when I visited this magnificent country, I had an amazing ti...

Not All Yields Are Created Equal

February 16, 2023

Ah, the old, reliable United States dollar. The physical embodiment of American prosperity and financial power. A currency backed by the power of democracy, liberty, the rule of law… …and the Gerald R. Ford class of aircraft carriers, a fleet of nuclear-powered behemoths 1,000 feet long and 100 ...

The Double-Bounce Effect

February 13, 2023

An elixir of adrenaline and butterflies surface. Your vision narrows as you become hyper-sensitive to your surroundings. The g-forces pull at your cheeks as you near the ground. Your shoulders droop. The mesh below your feet stretches as it catches your momentum… And just as the g-forces top out,...

Don’t Get Shaken Off Bitcoin’s Golden Bull

February 08, 2023

The cowboy takes a final drag of his cigarette and wipes the sweat from beneath his stetson. All around him the crowd is raucous, but in that moment he hears nothing. His attention is transfixed on the task at hand. He closes his eyes, bites down on his mouthpiece, and prepares for the thrill of a...

Inflation's Down, But Grocery Prices Are Set to Rise

February 06, 2023

Simple is best. That has always been one of the mottos that I firmly believe in. There is a supermarket on the basement floor where my gym is located. Once or twice a week, after my workout in the evening, I would go down there and pick up a roast chicken for $4.90, a packet of salad, and whatev...

Where the Next Inflation Swells Will Come From

February 01, 2023

Mavericks at Half Moon Bay, California, is one of the most notorious big-wave surfing spots. Its huge waves have taken the lives of two surfers and nearly killed several others. But besides the cold water and the presence of great whites, what really makes Mavericks so dangerous is what’s called...

Bitcoin’s Big Bear Squeeze

January 30, 2023

Leverage giveth and leverage taketh away. If we strip away all the narratives and fascinating storylines of the boom and bust that was crypto markets between 2021-2022, and look only at the data, that simple sentence explains it all. For the uninitiated, leverage is the act of using your existing ...

The Liquid Staking Wars Are Just Getting Started

January 28, 2023

Ah, how I love the smell of green candles in the morning. After more than a year of DownOnlyTM, courtesy of the Fed, we’re finally getting a pump in the coins. And, as you’ve probably noticed, some of the best-performing tokens like Lido (LDO) and Rocket Pool (RPL) are related to Liquid Staking D...

Ethereum’s Date With Destiny

January 26, 2023

Can you feel the mojo rising? Ever since the success of last year’s Merge, the stage has been set for Ethereum to lead us into the next bull market. The inevitable catalyst of ETH2.0’s new economics is something the team at Espresso has been covering closely – most recently in Mr. Lilly’s essay, ...

Don’t Get Caught by the Inflation Tides

January 23, 2023

The waves crashed against the cliff wall. Water splashed everywhere. My father and I watched as the next wave came rolling in. "We mistimed the tidal flow," my father said. In other words, we were about to be trapped on the rocks. With fishing gear on our back and Igloo coolers in our hands, we ...

Here Comes the Sun

January 18, 2023

Volcanoes, supernovas, and crypto markets all have one thing in common — destruction giving way to rebirth. During each bear cycle, conditions worsen until those vulnerable to being forced out of the market – namely narratives, traders, and projects not equipped to last – are fully purged. And jus...

Musical Chairs

January 15, 2023

(Jerome Powell discussing the yield curve with the Board of Governors & staffers by Jarvis Labs) Congratulations on earning a bachelor’s degree in monetary economics. Last year, you learned about consumer price indexes (CPI), core inflation, the repo market, treasury curves, QT/QE, and the definit...

The Right Way to Give Out Free Money

January 11, 2023

Where is my Arbitrum airdrop?? I, like any other good degen out there, have been sybiling using Arbitrum organically in the hope of getting some sweet free tokens. Every day I check my wallet and there’s no Arbitrum (ARBI) tokens. I can’t take this anymore man. I’ve still got to pay for my Chr...

The King is Dead, Long Live the King

January 09, 2023

Wake up, reader. The Matrix has you. That’s right, you can’t trust your own thoughts and perceptions. Neither can I. If we could, we wouldn’t see the same stories repeat themselves in the markets time and time again: irrational exuberance at highs, followed by extreme cynicism and depression at...

What Keeps Me Up at Night

January 05, 2023

Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock. Toss to the left. Kick the comforter to the side. Too warm. Flip to the right. Pull the comforter back. It’s a bit chilly. We’ve all done this before. Insomnia is not fun. Given how 2022 turned out, my nights of tossing and turning vastly outnumbered nights of sound ...

The FED Can't Reach You

January 03, 2023

The bubble will be an absolute monster. I paraphrase what I wrote a year ago. It was in reference to what was the start of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) moving to a period of raising rates. Since then rates have climbed at a historic pace. In less than one year, rates went from 0% to a target rat...

The Grayscale (GBTC) Effect

December 26, 2022

As we wrap up 2022, the Espresso team is taking this week off to spend some time with loved ones. We hope you’re doing the same. We’ll be back to delivering fresh insights to you next week. In the meantime, this week we wanted to share a couple of our favorite pieces of the year. Today, we’re reu...

The Grayscale (GBTC) Effect

November 27, 2022

We dusted off a two year old story. One from 2020 we call The Grayscale Effect. As we look back through the pages we find the beginnings of the 2020-2021 bull run. It was an account of a meteoric rise. But hidden in those early days are clues that led to the carnage of 2022. Carnage that has yet ...

The Market is Changing

July 07, 2022

$1.19 million dollars on every First of July. This is how much a man named Bobby Bonilla receives once per year… Until 2035. He’s been at it since 2011. The U.S. Major League Baseball All-Star was wise in how he hashed out a deal at the twilight of his playing days. Him and his agent worked out a...

Restoring Trust

July 06, 2022

Its been a while… Since we last spoke seven months ago: Inflation is still lingering around 8%, treasury yields have inverted all throughout the curve, markets dropped into a den of grizzly bears, and a contagion unfolded in crypto. It feels like what started as a dumpster fire has now engulfed th...

Yield Atrophy

February 08, 2022

When Jerome Powell speaks, traders get weak in the knees. His presence paralyzes the thought process of the most seasoned veterans. Everywhere I turn it’s Jerome this, Powell that. It’s clear that market gossip is the hot take of the day. What was once a discussion about tether flows or exchange...

The Market's Next Phase

January 14, 2022

As I write these words, I have no idea where the analysis is about to take me. I’ve loaded my Tradingview software with about 30 various eurodollar futures contracts, about a dozen US treasury yields, the federal funds rate, inflation, and equity indexes. The goal in doing so is to create a frame ...

Who Crashed the Market?

March 22, 2021

The Carnage Left Us a Clue Media and analysts have it wrong, it was Pablo… Not Corona. Pablo was responsible for the market dropping 57% earlier this month. But instead of pointing the finger at Pablo, the media was blaming COVID-19, financial markets, a BitMex DDOS attack, a PlusToken scam and a...